Spatial and temporal analyses of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 re-emergence in Nigeria, 2015
Icomiare Lucky Adebudo1,&, Babasola Olugasa2, Eugene Odigie3, Simeon Ajisegiri1
1Nigeria Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Programme, Abuja, Nigeria, 2Department of Veterinary Public Health, University of Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, 3University of Benin, Edo State, Nigeria
Icomiare Lucky Adebudo, Nigeria Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Programme, Asokoro, Abuja, Nigeria
highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus H5N1 kills up to 90 - 100% of domestic fowl flock during outbreaks globally. This study, conducted from January 8, 2015 to August 6, 2015, aimed to assess the space-time distribution pattern of the re-emergence of HPAI H5N1 in Nigeria.
secondary analysis was done on confirmed cases of HPAI data abstracted from records of the Federal Department of Veterinary and Pest Control Service, Abuja. We sorted cases into confirmed and suspected HPAI. Geographic coordinates of affected farms was obtained using Google Earth Pros. We conducted analysis of the data with Kulldorff’s two-dimensional spatial scan statistics based on the use of circular window to identify whether the HPAI cases were randomly distributed over space or not. Spatial scan was used to detect clusters in space (assuming a Bernoulli distribution). Primary and secondary clusters were determined using likelihood-ratio test statistics. Time and space-time permutation was developed for prediction of possible outbreak. Chi-square was calculated at significant level set at 5%.
the virus affected 20 states (55.6%) in Nigeria. HPAI H5N1 epidemics occurred in all the six geo-political zones of Nigeria. Primary cluster and two secondary clusters of purely spatial scan statistics were all significant at p = 0.05, and revealed that 95.1% of H5N1-infected farms were located within a 0.091km radius (Log likelihood ratio = 25.68). The center coordinates for the clusters were found to be areas of high human density and considerable swine production. The Space-time permutation model identified a significant prospective outbreaks within 3.5 years interval in Plateau State (χ2 = 58.08, P < 0.001).
this finding portends significant potential for co-infection and re-assortment of the virus with the human and swine strains. We recommend the need for enhanced surveillance in both poultry and swine populations in Nigeria.
Nigeria CDC/Nigeria Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Programme 2<sup>nd</sup> Annual Scientific Conference (Abuja)
To create a platform for epidemiologists and public health physicians to share their scientific works, NCDC/NFELTP organized the 2nd annual scientific conference with the theme "strengthening one health through field epidemiology training" at Transcorp Hilton Hotel, Abuja, Nigeria from July 5-7, 2017. The objectives of the conference were to provide residents and graduates a forum to share findings from their field activities; provide training opportunity for trainees on scientific communication; provide an opportunity for epidemiological networking as well as create a forum to discuss pertinent public health issues. In attendance were dignitaries from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), USAID, WHO, Africa CDC, Ministries Departments and Agencies, University officials and other implementing partners. With the current rise in zoonotic diseases, the conference also featured a two-day pre-conference workshop on One Health which prioritized zoonotic infectious diseases in Nigeria using standardized prioritization methods. A second workshop focused on antimicrobial resistance. There were 38 oral presentations, 60 poster presentations and 2 plenary sessions. The presentations covered various sub-themes ranging from outbreak investigations, case management, health system strengthening, vaccine preventable diseases, communicable diseases and surveillance. The conference featured a National Night and climaxed with awards to outstanding presenters.
Dates: 05 Jul 17 - 07 Jul 17
Venue: Transcorp Hilton Hotel
Organizers: Nigeria Centre for Disease Control / Nigeria Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Programme
Contact person: Dr Patrick Nguku (email@example.com)