Conference abstract

Time series analysis of dog bite victims and hotspots of rabies exposure in Plateau State, Nigeria, 2011-2013

Pan African Medical Journal - Conference Proceedings. 2019:10(12).12 Dec 2019.
doi: 10.11604/pamj-cp.2019.10.12.823

Contact the corresponding author
Keywords: Dog-human interface, rabies, trend, mortality, hotspots, Nigeria
Oral presentation

Time series analysis of dog bite victims and hotspots of rabies exposure in Plateau State, Nigeria, 2011-2013

Ayodeji Olarinmoye1,2,3,&, Johnson Ojo4, Johnson Ojo2,3, Chima Ofoha5, Chikwe Amaike6, Ali Aldosari7, Babasola Olugasa2,3

1Engineer Abdullah Bugshan Research Chair for Dental and Oral Rehabilitation (DOR), College of Dentistry, King Saud University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 2Department of Veterinary Public Health and Preventive Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria, 3Centre for Control and Prevention of Zoonoses (CCPZ), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, 4Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria, 5Jos University Teaching Hospital, Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria, 6Jengre Seventh-Day Adventist Hospital, Jengre, Plateau State, Nigeria, 7Department of Geography, King Saud University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

&Corresponding author
Ayodeji Olarinmoye, Department of Veterinary Public Health and Preventive Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria

Abstract

Introduction: there is a paucity of research on time series analysis, mortality estimates and rabies exposure hot spots among human victims of dog attacks in Plateau State of north-central Nigeria (PLSNG).

Methods: case records of dog bite victims (DBVs) in PLSNG January 2011 - December 2013 were obtained from the National Veterinary Research Institute (NVRI), Vom, PLSNG, and used to develop a time-trend model of retrospective DBVs and forecast year 2014-2017 DBVs in the State. Annual human rabies deaths (AHRDs) were estimated using a standardized clinical decision tree model. Site names of DBVs were geo-referenced on Google Earth Pro®. Kulldorff’s spatio-temporal scan statistics was used to analyze the distribution patterns of the DBVs. Descriptive and spatio-temporal statistics were at α0.05.

Results: there were 507 DBVs, with mean AHRDs of 40±10 per 100,000 population in PLSNG. Predicted DBVs decreased (76±39), over 2011-2017. A significant cluster of DBVs or hotspot of human rabies exposure (0.42 km radius; geographic centre at 9.9425°N, 8.7404°E) was identified. The time frame was 6 days (2011/6/15 to 2011/6/21) and it comprised 7 communities, mainly slums.

Conclusion: the implications of these findings for rabies prevention and control in Plateau State of Nigeria are discussed in detail in the report.