Conference abstract

Time series analysis of dog bite victims presented for treatment in Ogun State, Nigeria, 2013-2017: implications for annual human rabies exposure and mortality estimates

Pan African Medical Journal - Conference Proceedings. 2019:10(21).29 Dec 2019.
doi: 10.11604/pamj-cp.2019.10.21.852

Contact the corresponding author
Keywords: Seasonal variation, rabies exposure, time plot, trend
Oral presentation

Time series analysis of dog bite victims presented for treatment in Ogun State, Nigeria, 2013-2017: implications for annual human rabies exposure and mortality estimates

Ogechi Njoku1,&, Johnson Ojo1,2, Charles Amakoh1, Philip Mshelbwala1, Olufunmilayo Adegbite3, Oluyomi Bamiselu4, Irene Esu3, Ismaila Shinkafi3, Bola Adeyemi3, Emmanuel Akeba5, Aisha Onatunde5, Sophie Druelles6, Olufunmilayo Sanni-Adeniyi1,3, Dotun Shorunke5, Ayotunde Fasunla1,7, Babasola Olugasa1,8, Albert Ogunkoya1,8

1Centre for Control and Prevention of Zoonoses, Department of Veterinary Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria, 2Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria, 3Federal Ministry of Health, Federal Secretariat, Abuja, Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria, 4Epidemiology Department, Ministry of Health, State Secretariat, Abeokuta, Ogun State, 5Veterinary Services Department, Ministry of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Ogun State, Nigeria, 6Sanofi Pasteur, Lyon, France, 7Department of Otorhynolaryngology, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Nigeria, 8Society for Rabies in West Africa, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria

&Corresponding author
Ogechi Njoku, Centre for Control and Prevention of Zoonoses, Department of Veterinary Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria

Abstract

Introduction: monthly incidence of dog bite victims and rabies exposure are not often reported in Nigeria. Yet, such reports are essential for monitoring the success or otherwise of rabies control in the states. We designed a time series model of dog bite victims (DBVs) presented for treatment in some major health facilities in Ogun State, a gateway state of south-western Nigeria.

Methods: primary data obtained from purposively selected 15 human health facilities across Ogun State in south-western Nigeria were evaluated for promptness in case presentation, initial treatment given and post-exposure-prophylaxis (PEP) compliance of DBVs. We computed time plot and seasonal index of DBVs over a 5-year retrospective period, January 2013 to December 2017 with some 303 DBVs enlisted. Fisher’s precision statistical significance was set at 0.05.

Results: the number of DBVs yearly reported ranged from 41 (13.53%) in 2014, through 44 (14.52%) in 2013, 54 (17.82%) in 2015 and 70 (23.10%) in 2016 to 94 (31.02) in 2017. Mean annual DBVs was 60.6. Monthly variation in DBVs ranged from March or May (n = 18), through January (n = 19), August and July (n = 21 and 22, respectively) to 40 in December. There was a significant seasonal variation in DBVs between dry season (n = 172, 56.77%) and rainy season (n = 131, 43.23%).

Conclusion: time series model here identified corroborates earlier reports on dog bite variation in some other parts of West Africa. The present findings may be useful for enabling standard decision tree model towards estimation of annual human deaths due to rabies in Ogun State, Nigeria.